Polymarket Institute
Overview
Prediction markets are one of the most significant technologies of the day, changing how people globally think about politics, sports, economics, tech, and much more. The rigorous study of prediction markets – both as mechanisms in their own right, and for their effects on the systems and societies around them – is, therefore, crucial.
The Polymarket Institute is founded by Polymarket to bring scientific rigor to this study. The Institute exists to understand prediction markets at a fundamental level, where supported by evidence, to advocate for their use as tools for policymaking and public forecasting.
Mission
The Polymarket Institute conducts and supports independent research into prediction that establishes foundational understanding of these markets and how their information can be harnessed. Beyond the research we also translate that research into an evidence-based case for their utility across many domains. The Institute exists to scientifically back and develop prediction markets, but it is committed to neutrality on findings. The core of the Institute’s mission is to take the long view on the hardest questions in prediction markets and enable the global research community to find unbiased fact-based answers.
Research Pillars
- 01
Market Structure.
How prediction markets function as pricing and information-aggregation systems: market microstructure, incentive design, order book dynamics, and price discovery. Central questions include how faithfully prices track true probabilities, how liquidity affects that accuracy, and how design choices around payout structure, participant diversity, resolution criteria, and incentives shape what a market ultimately produces.
- 02
Market Integrity and Safety.
This pillar ensures that research contributes toward developing a reliable and safe market and oracle design for all participants. We seek to develop frameworks for accurate pricing free of distortion, and for resolution mechanisms that all participants can trust.
- 03
Artificial Intelligence.
The growing intersection of AI and prediction markets. AI systems as participants (LLMs, trading agents, and forecasting bots), the use of markets to evaluate and calibrate AI-generated forecasts, markets as a possible check on AI hallucination and overconfidence, and how the presence of AI traders is reshaping market dynamics more broadly.
- 04
Policy and Economics.
Prediction markets as instruments for policymaking, election forecasting, and public decision-making, compared to traditional alternatives like polls, expert panels, econometric models.
- 05
Crypto and Decentralization.
The role of blockchain infrastructure and crypto-native mechanisms like on-chain settlement, tokenized markets, smart-contract-based resolution and the tradeoffs between on-chain and off-chain infrastructure, including how features like composability, pseudonymity, and permissionless access affect trust and participation.
Governance
Scientific Director:
The Institute is led by a Scientific Director who is not compensated by Polymarket, ensuring the Institute’s research judgment is not financially entangled with the company. The inaugural Scientific Director is a professor at Carnegie Mellon University.
Managing Director.
The Managing Director oversees the Institute’s operation, administering the Fellowship, managing the Institute's relationship with Polymarket. The Managing Director is employed by Polymarket. The Managing Director participates, alongside the Scientific Director, in the selection of Fellows
Fellowship
- Fellowships run for one year.
- Open to researchers currently affiliated with any institution (academic, government, industry, or independent) - this is not limited to full-time academics.
- Selection is made by the Institute (currently the Scientific Director and the Managing Director),
- Fellows retain the right to publish regardless of findings, per the Rigor-Advocacy Principle above.
Data Access
Polymarket provides fellows with free access to trading and market data, as described in the Institute’s inaugural blog post.